Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 0.022642 0.025736 0.029113 0.033073 0.037593 0.042596 0.048558
2025-02-16 0.017519 0.021684 0.026641 0.032985 0.040906 0.050492 0.063007
2025-02-23 0.014817 0.019426 0.025241 0.033141 0.043628 0.057121 0.075885
2025-03-02 0.012711 0.017459 0.023743 0.032702 0.045207 0.062128 0.086913
2025-03-09 0.011471 0.016407 0.023215 0.033341 0.048108 0.068995 0.101023
2025-03-16 0.010196 0.015112 0.022147 0.033009 0.049479 0.073709 0.112417
2025-03-23 0.009513 0.014572 0.022060 0.034031 0.052853 0.081578 0.129257
2025-03-30 0.008427 0.013295 0.020722 0.032972 0.052871 0.084263 0.138203
2025-04-06 0.007641 0.012393 0.019852 0.032522 0.053745 0.088288 0.149622
2025-04-13 0.006803 0.011319 0.018595 0.031295 0.053184 0.089859 0.156996
2025-04-20 0.006505 0.011099 0.018698 0.032324 0.056483 0.098151 0.176791
2025-04-27 0.006198 0.010831 0.018686 0.033136 0.059459 0.106129 0.196814
2025-05-04 0.005921 0.010601 0.018734 0.034088 0.062831 0.115239 0.220135
2025-05-11 0.005486 0.010049 0.018166 0.033871 0.064045 0.120544 0.236868
2025-05-18 0.005152 0.009647 0.017828 0.034038 0.065974 0.127342 0.257214
2025-05-25 0.004769 0.009116 0.017201 0.033586 0.066646 0.131751 0.273183
2025-06-01 0.004561 0.008902 0.017149 0.034243 0.069567 0.140862 0.299867
2025-06-08 0.004254 0.008464 0.016625 0.033902 0.070411 0.145823 0.318223
2025-06-15 0.004127 0.008374 0.016778 0.034953 0.074247 0.157352 0.352207
2025-06-22 0.003786 0.007819 0.015946 0.033864 0.073406 0.158830 0.363747
2025-06-29 0.003538 0.007435 0.015431 0.033401 0.073874 0.163177 0.382324
2025-07-06 0.003237 0.006913 0.014586 0.032141 0.072441 0.163145 0.390546
2025-07-13 0.003165 0.006881 0.014777 0.033198 0.076371 0.175659 0.430438